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Slay the Spire: Metrics Driven Design and Balance

What the talk says

What the kit took

Measured (BalanceReportTests)

What Result
20,000 simulated ten-floor runs (seed 7); "late", which does nothing, given on floor 8 to half the runs that get there win rate of runs with it 73.8% against 35.5% overall; floor-matched lift +0.002 (tolerance ±0.021); "shield", which really helps, +0.076
2 sessions of 500 runs winning 90%, 50 sessions of 2 runs winning 20% win rate 83.6% per run, 22.7% per session; x's pick rate 91.8% per run, 13.5% per session
A neutral option taken by 10% at difficulty 0 (60% wins) and 90% at difficulty 10 (20% wins) lift 0 within each difficulty; pooled, -0.16

Each test fails against the naive version: the baseline as all runs instead of floor-matched, every run weighted 1, and difficulties pooled.

Not taken